Scenario 2 Powering Regeneration in Tasmania

By Dr. Emily Samuels Ballantyne

May these words fall like seeds in fertile ground
Not just read, but felt.
Let energy be life, and life give back.

May farmers, tradespeople, carers, and the land feel seen and honoured.
Let this vision stir a return to rhythm:
From extraction to care, from silence to shared song.

Let Tasmania rise, not as a battery,
But a living, breathing commons.

And may this be our beginning….

With the upcoming Energy Conference in Devonport, we’re presented with a critical moment, a time to reflect, reevaluate, and consider redesign. Back in early 2025, I wrote that we needed to shift the energy vibe. Now, I offer Scenario Two: a $3 billion redirection of Tasmania's energy policy grounded in foundational economics, ecological intelligence, and local resilience.

While national debates pivot between renewables and nuclear, Tasmania must ask a deeper question: What is energy for? Rather than fuelling extractive export industries, can energy nourish life? As Helena Norberg-Hodge reminds us, “The global economy is an artificial construct. The local economy is the real economy.”

Here’s the reality: 57% of Tasmania’s electricity is consumed by just six industrial companies, while small businesses use 23% and households only 19%. Yet it’s households who bear the brunt of rising energy costs, while industry enjoys heavily subsidised rates secured since the 1960s. Our current energy model reflects a consumer-driven economy, designed to extract value from everyday people rather than a public-interest policy that ensures energy circulates for the common good.

Trickle-down economics continues to shape economic and political decisions in Tasmania funnelling public benefit toward global capital and large-scale industry. Even Margaret Thatcher might express discomfort at the current landscape, where global vested interests dominate without regulation or regard for place-based wellbeing. The social contract is fraying.

The social contract is the unspoken agreement between government and the people, an understanding that taxes and participation will be reciprocated with care, services, and fairness: “public interest politics”. But today, many Tasmanians feel this contract has been broken. Public investment flows upward rather than outward. Place-based needs are ignored. Trust is wearing thin. But beneath the erosion lies an opportunity to renew the covenant between people and place, not through top-down policy, but by seeding resilience from the soil up.

Foundational economics begins with the essentials: food, care, housing, energy, water, and mobility. From this lens, energy is not just about kilowatts it’s about community wellbeing, food security, and local value creation. It’s about keeping wealth and care circulating in place.

While the “Battery of the Nation” remains the dominant energy narrative centralised, export-driven, and shaped by Tasmania’s heavy industrial stakeholders, Scenario Two offers a regenerative alternative. This isn’t about wires and overseas contracts; it’s about farmers, food systems, care work, trade skills and long-term jobs. It’s about placing people and productivity at the heart of energy policy.

This $3 billion vision is a whole-of-state redesign where energy becomes a public good. Across regenerative farms, small-scale manufacturing clusters, TAFE sector, shared kitchens, and local co-ops, energy powers reliable jobs, revitalises trade skills and supports local industry. By investing in repair, maintenance, and clean technology infrastructure, Scenario Two lays the groundwork for a workforce renaissance, supporting electricians, apprentices, builders, and growers in every region.

Scenario Two: A Regenerative Energy Vision for Tasmania; Sixteen Living Scenarios for $3 Billion in Public Investment While the “Battery of the Nation” remains the dominant energy narrative centralised, export-driven, and shaped by a few. Scenario Two offers a regenerative alternative. This isn’t about wires and overseas contracts; it’s about farmers, food systems, care work, and long-term jobs. It’s about placing people and productivity at the heart of energy policy.

This $3 billion vision is a whole-of-state redesign where energy becomes a public good. Across regenerative farms, small-scale manufacturing clusters, shared kitchens, and local co-ops, energy powers reliable jobs, revitalises trade skills, and supports local industry. By investing in repair, maintenance, and clean technology infrastructure, Scenario Two lays the groundwork for a workforce renaissance supporting electricians, apprentices, builders, and growers in every region.

The Case for Scenario Two Tasmania’s energy future is at a crossroads. The dominant “Battery of the Nation” vision centralised, export-focused, and subsidised by public funds has been shaped by a small circle of interests. Meanwhile, communities are left bearing high costs, with little input or return. In contrast, Scenario Two proposes a public & community investment strategy: $3 billion redirected to regenerate Tasmania’s energy, food, care, and jobs infrastructure.

This is not a wish list. This is a business case.

Public concessional loans (like those used for Marinus) are redirected into community-owned food and energy systems solar, storage, efficiency upgrades and small scale regenerative farms healing our land and people. These systems reduce household bills, generate long-term income for local energy co-ops, and reinvest in food security, aged care, repair economies, and workforce development. Maintenance and asset renewal cycles provide stable, long-term jobs in trades and renewables, partnered with TAFE and unions. This model keeps wealth in Tasmania, builds trust, reduces emissions, and enables economic dignity.

The first question we must ask: Who owns the grid and who benefits from it?

Currently, Tasmania’s energy infrastructure is shaped by a trickle-down model. Large-scale projects like Marinus Link are publicly subsidised up to 80% by federal concessional loans yet primarily benefit corporate interests and export markets. While these low-interest loans reduce financial risk for private investors, the long-term profits remain in their hands. Households and communities are left to carry the costs.

To put it simply: if $3 billion in public concessional loans can support a private, export-oriented grid, why not use the same funds to build a public-interest energy future one that regenerates local economies, delivers affordable power, and supports community resilience?

Scenario Two redirects this public finance to support a foundational economic model: a publicly and community-owned grid, where infrastructure serves food security, clean industry, aged care, regenerative agriculture, and small businesses. This approach ensures energy circulates within the state not just through wires, but through livelihoods, public health, and regional strength. When energy systems are owned locally, revenue stays local. It funds schools, clinics, and climate-smart infrastructure. It reduces bills. It builds trust. And yes, the government benefits too through social licence, stable economies, and a reduction in long-term inequality.

Smart Economics & Stewardship for the Long Term

This isn’t just ethically sound, it's financially smart. By investing in community infrastructure instead of subsidising private profits, Tasmania builds wealth that lasts. Renewables like solar, batteries and wind farms require good spatial planning in the scoping phase and foresight in asset depreciation and ongoing maintenance, local ownership makes this transparent and accountable. This business model opens up thousands of long-term jobs for electricians, technicians, and builders anchored through TAFE partnerships and trade unions. It’s a vision of economic stewardship, not endless extraction. It invites us to ask: Should we keep growing energy exports, or create resilient, needs-based systems that honour ecological boundaries and local wellbeing?

Scenario Two is a spark for what’s possible. The following scenarios offer just a taste of how Tasmania can power a future rooted in care, community, and common sense.

Scenario Two: Powering a Regenerative Tasmania: Sixteen Living Scenarios for $3 Billion in Public Investment

1. Huon Valley: Orchards of Power

Regenerative orchards and small-scale farms in the Huon Valley co-invest in shared solar infrastructure. With access to wholesale energy prices once reserved for industry, they power cool stores, irrigation, food processing sheds, and mobile health care clinics and local food box prescription deliveries. Energy becomes a seed for local abundance.

2. Triabunna: Tidal Sovereignty

A former port becomes a beacon of blue regeneration. Powered by algae batteries and tidal energy, Triabunna funds marine ranger employment, local seaweed farming, and circular seafood processing. A coastal commons rises, blending Indigenous stewardship with regenerative aquaculture.

3. Arthur River: Storm-Proof Living

This west coast community is off-grid and self-reliant. Solar arrays and a community battery power homes, workshops, and micro-enterprises. Coastal resilience projects are youth-led, with energy security enabling real climate adaptation from the ground up.

4. Hobart: A City of Care and Culture

Hobart evolves into a decentralised eco-city. Rooftops are solar gardens, backyards host edible forests, and community-owned kitchens feed locals using surplus harvests. Backyard chickens are given to residents as part of practical policy making to eat food waste and make eggs for residents. Design studios teach children how to map food miles, care cycles, and energy flows.

5. Launceston: Living Infrastructure

Public buildings house tool libraries, EV hubs, and battery banks. A school rooftop solar co-op funds student-run food gardens and repair cafes. Local government partners with community farms to make food security a civic service, not a market luxury.

6. Midlands: Sheep, Soil, and Sun

At the O’Connor sheep station, solar panels rise beside regenerative pastures. Energy powers wool sheds, shearer quarters, and mobile vet clinics. Carbon is sequestered in soil and fibre, and community-owned solar ensures that every watt and bale builds place-based resilience.

7. Penguin: Powering Hospitality

In this north-west town, tourism operators co-own a renewables co-op. Revenue supports trail regeneration, food resilience hubs, and public arts festivals. A seed library anchors local exchange networks. Renewable energy powers a local culture of celebration.

8. Smithton: Cold Storage Commons

A dairy co-op builds a solar microgrid and community freezer, storing surplus milk and cheese. Surplus savings fund new food businesses and local eldercare. This cold commons keeps wealth local and food fresh, redefining energy as nourishment.

9. St Helens: Seafood for the People

Small fishers gain access to solar-powered seafood hubs, where catches are processed and sold locally. Fish waste is composted for seaweed farms. Jobs stay local, traditions are revitalised, and ocean health is monitored by citizen scientists.

10. Regenerative Network: Across the Island

From Bruny Island to Burnie, farms and towns form a decentralised network of Regenerative Farm Hubs. Each hub includes a seed library, compost station, herb garden, and outdoor classroom. Transparent budgeting via digital tools builds trust and real democracy in place.

11. Macquarie Harbour: Circular Aquaculture & Coastal Repair

On Tasmania’s west coast, salmon operations transition to land-based circular aquaculture. Community-owned systems convert fish waste into nutrients for greenhouse-grown greens, creating new jobs in nutrient cycling, lettuce production, and marine restoration. What once threatened ancient skates now grows salad turning pollution into solution.

12. Huon Valley: Regenerative Food & Aquaculture Futures

In the Huon, regenerative farms and land-based aquaculture co-design a new regional food system. Nutritionally dense crops thrive alongside circular fish farming, supported by solar-powered processing hubs, cool stores, and shared logistics. Long-standing tensions give way to collaborative stewardship uniting care for people, land, and water.

13. Devonport: Industrial Ecology Reborn

Devonport's industrial precincts integrate circular economy principles. Waste heat from factories powers greenhouses and aquaponics systems. Local apprenticeships emerge across retrofitting, energy auditing, and closed-loop manufacturing. TAFE and trade unions lead the training charge, ensuring electricians and technicians are future-ready.

14. Bell Bay: Circular Industry & Coastal Repair

Rather than expanding into green hydrogen, Bell Bay industries pivot to regenerative activity: remanufacturing, biochar production from forestry residues, and large-scale repair and upcycling. Coastal clean-up projects and marine research centres support long-term jobs, heritage stewardship, and environmental accountability.

15. Burnie: Bio-Industry by Design

Burnie becomes a hub for bio-industrial innovation. Hemp fibre, mushroom cultivation, and timber byproducts fuel a new ecosystem of carbon-negative building materials and high-value exports from truly sustainable timbers. Old growth forest officially ends and our ancient forests are honoured for future generations.

16. All Homes: Energy-Efficient Living

Every home in Tasmania receives support to retrofit for energy efficiency: insulation, solar panels, water heating, and battery storage. A concessional loan scheme enables community energy co-ops to upgrade homes affordably, reduce bills, and create local trades jobs.

The returns flow back to the community cleaner air, lower emissions, and long-term savings. This is not a wish list. This is the seeds of Scenario Two. A bold, tangible, life-giving alternative to the “Battery of the Nation” vision currently dominating Tasmanian energy policy.

Scenario Two represents a grounded, regenerative option, spending $3 billion not on wires and exports, but on foundational systems that serve people and place. These are achievable designs, rooted in existing technologies, community wisdom, and regenerative values. A bold, tangible, life-giving alternative to Marinus and REZ. It invites us to spend $3 billion on what matters: food, energy, care, dignity, and the future of Tasmania as a living cultural landscape.

We need a Tasmanian Scenario Summit not another $3,000 industry gathering, but a regenerative assembly of farmers, technologists, healers, artists, carers, schoolkids, and elders. A platform to co-create Scenario Two: a bold alternative to the “Battery of the Nation” vision and the Marinus Link and REZ proposals currently dominating policy. Scenario Two invites us to reimagine energy from the ground up. To decentralise ownership.

To embed food production, land care, and meaningful work into our energy landscape. As Michael Shuman argued in The Small-Mart Revolution, we must reverse the extractive flow of capital. While he estimated in the early 2000s that only 30% of economic value stayed in local economies under traditional models, today we are lucky if even 10% remains.

Scenario Two proposes a regenerative reversal ensuring that 70% of economic value stays local, where it can seed trust, dignity, and resilience. Let’s not spend $3 billion on wires and panels alone. Let’s use it to cultivate dignity, stewardship, and intergenerational security.

Let’s honour Tasmania as a living cultural landscape, as local First Nations man Lyndon O’Neill describes it, a place where energy, food, and care are at the heart of community life.

Tasmania need not remain a test site for national interests. It can be a global leader in regenerative design. Partner With Me to Realise Scenario Two: An Invitation to Collaborate This work methodology is ready. The vision is clear. What’s missing is not community support, nor imagination, it's appropriate backing. To date, little funding has flowed to holistic, regenerative approaches like this one. The philanthropic sector often follows familiar paths, and government priorities are siloed. But the growing breakdown in social licence and community trust is a signal: it’s time for something different.

Scenario Two offers a unifying path forward, across community, industry, and land. I’m inviting aligned collaborators, from ReCFIT to regenerative industries, community leaders to philanthropic stewards to partner in making this vision real. Let’s design a Tasmanian future where care, energy, and trust flow together.

Dr. Emily Samuels Ballantyne is an eco-philosopher, regenerative designer and farmer, and founder of Magical Farm Tasmania and Regenera Commons. She is author of the forthcoming series, Soil & Soul.

www.regeneracommons.org